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Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy By Matthew R. Simmons ( Wiley )
Release Date: 2006-06-05
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Product Description
Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. It’s a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers’ questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
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 Well researched, but fails to "connect the dots"
Mr. Simmons' purpose in writing this book was to assess how long Saudi Arabia will be able to sustain its present rate of oil production. His assessment required extensive detective work as well as "reading between the lines" of Saudi Arabia's official statements because the Saudi's are highly secretive about their oil fields and they do not make any of their production data available to the public. Mr. Simmons concluded that Saudi Arabia will not be able to sustain its current production rates much longer and will soon enter a period of rapid decline.
Mr. Simmons' thesis is that conditions experienced at individual oil wells can be extrapolated to determine the level of depletion of the entire oil field in which the wells are located. As background, Mr. Simmons used old, but comprehensive, data on Saudi oil fields that were compiled prior to when Saudi Arabia nationalized its oil industry. This data establishes which Saudi oil fields are the largest and most productive. Mr. Simmons then analyzed more recent papers written on individual wells within the most important Saudi oil fields to see if these wells were exibiting signs consistent with oil field depletion. For example, oil wells with problems such as "gas caps" or "high water cuts" can be an indication that the entire oil field is in an advanced state of depletion. Mr. Simmons concluded that problems indicative of depletion are occurring at wells in Saudi's most productive oil fields. Mr. Simmons also noted that production increases at smaller fields and the development of newly discovered fields have been barely sufficient to offset the declines at the older fields.
Mr. Simmons is a formidable researcher, but his writing skills leave something to be desired. Rather than condense the complex technical information into coherent conclusions, he simply repeats the same facts over and over, apparently hoping that the reader will "connect the dots" for himself. Because of this, I probably missed many of the points Mr. Simmons was trying to make. Better organization and summary of the complex material could have made the book half as long as twice as understandable.
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 a must read
if you really want to understand why oil prices have risen and are likely to stay high for a long time, this is a must read. for some reason, americans feel as if they have a divine right to cheap fuel; we are 5% of the world's populationa and consume 25% of each year's oil production. as large parts of the world economy expand outside of the US, we will be competing for oil resources and since we produce hardly any oil ourselves, we can bid for oil at the going price or go without. the book is a call to arms for the US to realize the facts and do something before the crisis overwhelms us.
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Saudi Oil Shock
Matthew R. Simmons is one of the smartest oil men on earth. He knows more about Saudi Aramco Oil Company than I do and I lived in Saudi Arabia for 18 years. I love the title, Twilight in the Desert, it's sometimes twilight that's the most beautiful in Sauid Arabia. In the empty quarter, away from all city lights you can see a billion stars. I am a romantic when I remember the most beautiful sight in the world, nightime flare off from the Riyadh Refinery! It's beautiful. This is just a quick review to say that I believe Mr. Simmons is right. 100% right about Saudi Aramco. My concerns about this book is that it doesn't talk about water enough. Saudi's big problems are about water. Water tables are falling. In some places, as much as 16 feet per year. I believe Saudi Arabia might stop exporting by 2018. I have no way of knowing this. It's just a feeling from having worked for Saudi Aramco Oil Company. Regards, Keith Renick, Peachtree City, Ga.
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 OIL!
OH BOY. WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF OIL. AGAIN. GOTTA KEEP THOSE PRICES UP UP UP!
WHAT YOU NEED IS A BICYCLE AND A BUS PASS IN SUNNY TAMPA FLA. AND ANOTHER COLD BEER...
MAYBE THE BUS WILL BE A HYBRID RUNNING ON B80 BIO-DIESEL.
DON'T WORRY JUST BE HAPPY...
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Long but worth it
This is a fairly long and detailed book on Saudi oil production. It talks about all of the different oilfields from both an historical and current point of view. Of course the fame of this book lies in the fact that it suggests the strong possibility that some Saudi oilfields may be much closer to depletion or decline than we are led to believe. That's basically a peak oil issue. However, I found the book to be interesting on a different level also. Everyone knows that Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producing country, but very few people probably know what the oil industry is like there. This book gives a feel for what the oilfields and related processing plants are actually like. In any case, if you are interested in peak oil, you will probably want to get around to reading this book at some point since it is referenced in a lot of other works.
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